Purdue visits Beaver Stadium on Saturday, October 31, at 4:15 p.m. ET, and the game turns on whether the Boilermakers' passing attack can solve Penn State's pass defense. Purdue throws for nearly 281 yards a game. Penn State allows about half that.

The Matchup

Records: Purdue 3-4 (2-3 at home), Penn State 3-4 (2-2 at home)
Venue: Beaver Stadium, University Park, PA
Kickoff: Saturday, October 31, 4:15 p.m. ET
TV: BTN
Line (DraftKings): Penn State -10, O/U 54.5

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What Decides It

Penn State's pass defense is built to blunt exactly what Purdue does best.

Purdue's offense runs through the air. Passing accounts for more than two-thirds of its roughly 409 yards a game, and Ryan Browne has 10 touchdown passes against 3 interceptions.

Penn State allows about 141 passing yards a game and fewer than 19 points. If that unit holds anywhere near its season form, Purdue loses its most reliable way to move the ball.

The ground game is where Purdue can stay in it.

Penn State's run defense gives up about 172 rushing yards a game, well above the roughly 128 Purdue averages on the ground. Fame Ijeboi has 9 rushing touchdowns, giving Purdue a proven finisher on the ground.

The same door is open the other way. Purdue allows nearly 162 rushing yards a game, more than Penn State's average of about 131. Whichever team commits to the run and sticks with it should control the clock.

Penn State's scoring has dried up during the losing streak.

The Nittany Lions have not scored more than 23 points in any of the four losses. Two of them came by just 3 and 4 points, the kind of games a modestly better offensive day would have flipped.

Three of the four losses were decided by a single score. The last win was a 55-13 rout, and Penn State has not looked like that offense since.

Players to Watch

Purdue Boilermakers

Passing: Ryan Browne – 145-221, 1,822 YDS, 10-3 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Fame Ijeboi – 130 ATT, 568 YDS, 9 TD
Receiving: Asaad Waseem – 38 REC, 588 YDS, 1 TD

Waseem leads Purdue in receiving. If Penn State takes him away, Purdue leans harder on Ijeboi.

Penn State Nittany Lions

Passing: Rocco Becht – 132-210, 1,664 YDS, 12-5 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Carson Hansen – 72 ATT, 278 YDS, 4 TD
Receiving: Chase Sowell – 34 REC, 510 YDS, 3 TD

Becht has thrown 12 touchdowns, but Penn State's scoring has dipped during the streak. Hansen getting going against a leaky Purdue run defense would take pressure off him.

Prediction

Penn State 27, Purdue 20. The Nittany Lions' pass defense takes away Purdue's preferred route, and a Boilermakers defense allowing more than 32 points a game is the right opponent to snap an offensive slump. Ijeboi keeps Purdue inside the 10-point number, but Penn State ends the streak at home.