No. 19 SMU visits Syracuse on Saturday at the JMA Wireless Dome, and the matchup that jumps off the page is the Mustangs' passing game against the Orange secondary. SMU throws for more than 313 yards a game. Syracuse allows about 202, so the Mustangs average roughly 111 more through the air than this defense usually gives up.

The Matchup

SMU Mustangs: 6-1 (5-0 home), No. 19
Syracuse Orange: 3-4 (1-2 home)
Venue: JMA Wireless Dome, Syracuse, NY (indoor)
Kickoff: Saturday, Oct. 31, noon ET
TV: ESPN2
Line: SMU -10, O/U 58.5 (DraftKings)

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What Decides It

SMU's passing game should find room all afternoon. Kevin Jennings has thrown 19 touchdowns against 5 interceptions. The Mustangs also put up more than 36 points a game.

Syracuse's pass defense is the weaker of the two in this game, allowing about 202 yards a game to SMU's 179. The Orange have also given up at least 27 points in each of their last five games, including 41 in an overtime win on Oct. 3.

The total looks too low for these two offenses. SMU and Syracuse combine for 68 points a game on their season rates, nearly 10 more than the posted total. Both teams move the ball, with each averaging more than 450 yards of offense.

Syracuse has its own route to points. The Orange throw for about 286 yards a game against an SMU defense allowing 179, and they run for about 164 against a unit allowing 124. SMU's defense is the better of the two, but the Orange have scored 25 or more in four of their last five.

SMU arrives in better form, but this is a road test. The Mustangs have won 4 straight, capped by a 59-20 rout on Oct. 24. All four of those wins came at home, though, and the last road game shown was a 31-41 loss on Sept. 19.

Syracuse keeps games tight. Its last four were decided by 8 points or fewer, with two overtime wins on the road. The Orange have still dropped 2 of 3 at home this season.

Players to Watch

SMU Mustangs

Passing: Kevin Jennings – 156-215, 2,062 YDS, 19-5 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Kendrick Raphael – 121 ATT, 641 YDS, 8 TD
Receiving: Yamir Knight – 38 REC, 443 YDS, 2 TD

Raphael adds a second scoring threat for SMU with 8 rushing touchdowns.

Syracuse Orange

Passing: Steve Angeli – 77-138, 987 YDS, 6-5 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Tylik Hill – 88 ATT, 461 YDS, 1 TD
Receiving: Umari Hatcher – 54 REC, 887 YDS, 8 TD

Hatcher is the most productive receiver in this game, with roughly double Knight's yardage and 4 times his touchdowns. If Syracuse keeps pace, it runs through him.

Prediction

SMU's passing edge is too large to ignore, and a Syracuse defense allowing more than 26 points a game is a poor fit against an offense scoring more than 36. The Orange will score through Hatcher and their run game, which pushes this past the total. SMU wins and covers, 38-27.