The South Florida Bulls visit the East Carolina Pirates at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium on Friday night. The matchup that should decide it is East Carolina's ground game against the Bulls' defense. The Pirates are a narrow home favorite despite the worse record, which makes this a closer call than the standings suggest.
The Matchup
South Florida Bulls: 6-2 (4-1 at home)
East Carolina Pirates: 4-4 (3-1 at home)
Venue: Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium, Greenville, NC
Kickoff: Friday, November 6, 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN2
Line (DraftKings): ECU -2.5, O/U 39.5
East Carolina Pirates tickets
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What Decides It
South Florida's defense gives the Bulls the edge on that side of the ball. East Carolina allows about 24 points a game, a long way behind the Bulls' mark. South Florida also gives up fewer yards, about 307 a game to East Carolina's 336.
The recent form backs it up. The Bulls held their last two opponents to 10 and 2 points, both home wins. Their offense scores 27 a game, so the gap between what they score and what they allow is wide.
East Carolina has to win this on the ground. The Pirates run for about 165 yards a game, and South Florida allows about 128. That is an edge of roughly 36 yards a game for the East Carolina attack, and it is the clearest path to points against this defense.
TJ Engleman Jr. is the reason that path exists, with 689 yards and 5 touchdowns on 105 carries. Mitch Griffis has thrown 4 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, so leaning on the run looks like the safer route for East Carolina.
The total of 39.5 asks both offenses to slow down. These teams average a combined 51 points a game, 11.5 more than the market is pricing in. The number reflects South Florida's defense and East Carolina's most recent result, a 17-9 home win.
Showers in the forecast only add to the case for a low score. The lean here is to the under.
Players to Watch
South Florida Bulls
Passing: Michael Van Buren Jr. – 116-181, 1,273 YDS, 6 TD
Rushing: D.J. Crowther – 121 ATT, 578 YDS, 7 TD
Receiving: Bryson Rodgers – 33 REC, 345 YDS, 2 TD
Crowther has run for more touchdowns than Van Buren has thrown. The Bulls run for 148 yards a game, and Crowther leads them on the ground.
East Carolina Pirates
Passing: Mitch Griffis – 69-126, 753 YDS, 4-5 (TD-INT)
Rushing: TJ Engleman Jr. – 105 ATT, 689 YDS, 5 TD
Receiving: Ray Ray Joseph Jr. – 33 REC, 303 YDS, 3 TD
Engleman has more rushing yards than Crowther on fewer carries. Ray Ray Joseph Jr. is the Pirates' receiving leader, with 3 touchdown receptions.
Weather
Showers are in the forecast in Greenville, with a 51% chance of precipitation, a temperature of 67°F and gusts up to 7 mph.
Prediction
South Florida wins, 20-17. The Bulls have the better defense and the better record, and that matters more than the home-field edge the line is built on. East Carolina's run game keeps it close, but Griffis' interceptions are the difference in a low-scoring game.