Southern Miss visits UL Monroe on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET at Malone Stadium. Both run defenses are giving up yards in bulk, but only one offense is built to cash in. That offense belongs to the Golden Eagles.

The Matchup

Away: Southern Miss Golden Eagles (2-5, 2-2 home)
Home: UL Monroe Warhawks (1-6, 0-3 home)
Venue: Malone Stadium, Monroe, LA
Kickoff: Saturday, October 31, 3:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN+
Line (DraftKings): USM -3.5, O/U 55.5

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What Decides It

Southern Miss can run straight at the UL Monroe defense. The Golden Eagles average about 155 rushing yards a game. UL Monroe allows nearly 219 on the ground, so this is a strength meeting a weakness.

Steven Robinson is the engine, with 577 yards and 8 touchdowns on 121 carries. A defense allowing 37 points a game has not shown it can stop that kind of volume.

UL Monroe's ground game is not built to exploit the same opening. Southern Miss is even worse against the run, giving up about 233 yards a game. On paper that is a hole worth attacking.

The problem is that UL Monroe averages only about 117 rushing yards a game. Austin Carlisle leads the team with 237 yards and 1 touchdown on 44 carries, which is not a feature back's workload.

That pushes the Warhawks onto Aidan Armenta's arm. He has been efficient, with 8 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, but he faces a Southern Miss pass defense allowing 210 yards a game. That is roughly what UL Monroe's passing offense produces, so there is no clear edge for the Warhawks through the air.

The 55.5 total asks for more scoring than either offense has produced. These teams combine for about 46 points a game, well short of the number. Clearing it would take nearly 10 more combined points than these offenses usually produce.

Both defenses do leak points. Southern Miss allows 32 a game and UL Monroe scores just 20, while UL Monroe allows more than Southern Miss scores. Still, UL Monroe has scored more than 21 points only twice in its last five games, and it was shut out 24-0 at home. That points toward the under.

Players to Watch

Southern Miss Golden Eagles

Passing: Landry Lyddy – 101-170, 1,196 YDS, 7-4 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Steven Robinson – 121 ATT, 577 YDS, 8 TD
Receiving: Mario Sanders – 40 REC, 569 YDS, 5 TD

Sanders gives Southern Miss a receiving option alongside Robinson. If UL Monroe crowds the line to slow the run, he is the obvious target.

UL Monroe Warhawks

Passing: Aidan Armenta – 96-153, 1,121 YDS, 8-3 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Austin Carlisle – 44 ATT, 237 YDS, 1 TD
Receiving: Marcellus Jackson – 32 REC, 265 YDS

Jackson is UL Monroe's receiving leader, but his yardage is modest for his volume. UL Monroe needs a big-play threat to emerge if Armenta is going to carry the offense.

Weather

The forecast calls for clouds, 69°F, gusts of 8 mph and a 49% chance of precipitation.

Prediction

Both teams are coming off wins, but Southern Miss has the one matchup advantage that travels: Robinson against a run defense that can't hold up. UL Monroe's ground game is not built to punish a Southern Miss run defense that is even softer, and Armenta can't do it alone. Southern Miss covers, and the game stays under the total.

Pick: Southern Miss 31, UL Monroe 21