Louisville hosts Stanford on Saturday, Oct. 31, at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium. The matchup most likely to decide it is Louisville's running game against a Stanford defense that allows a lot of yards on the ground. Stanford's own run game could find room too, but it starts from a much lower baseline.

The Matchup

Stanford Cardinal: 4-4 (4-1 home)
Louisville Cardinals: 4-3 (3-1 home)
Venue: L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium, Louisville, KY
Kickoff: Saturday, Oct. 31, 3:15 p.m. ET
TV: ACC Network
Line (DraftKings): Louisville -22.5, O/U 60.5

Louisville Cardinals tickets
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What Decides It

Louisville should be able to run the ball almost wherever it wants.

Louisville averages 215 rushing yards a game, and Stanford allows nearly 188. Louisville's typical output already beats what Stanford usually surrenders by about 27 yards, so this is a strength running straight into a weakness.

Isaac Brown leads that attack with 568 yards and 4 touchdowns on 83 carries. If Stanford has to load up against the run, it opens the door for a Louisville passing game that averages nearly 270 yards a game.

Stanford has not shown it can win on the road.

All 4 of Stanford's wins have come at home, which leaves it winless in three games elsewhere. The last two road trips were lopsided: a 58-7 loss on Oct. 10 and a 57-3 loss the week before.

Stanford does arrive with some momentum after home wins of 34-7 and 31-28 the past two weeks. But a defense allowing nearly 36 points a game now faces a Louisville offense scoring nearly 39, away from the building where Stanford has done all its winning.

Stanford's best path runs through Micah Ford.

Louisville's run defense allows 151 yards a game, well above the roughly 112 Stanford usually gains on the ground. That gap suggests Ford could find more room than he typically does.

Ford has 679 yards and 8 touchdowns, and sustained drives would keep Louisville's offense on the sideline. Davis Warren has thrown 11 touchdowns against just 2 interceptions, so Stanford can at least avoid giving away short fields.

Players to Watch

Stanford Cardinal

Passing: Davis Warren – 163-271, 1,933 YDS, 11-2 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Micah Ford – 136 ATT, 679 YDS, 8 TD
Receiving: Caden High – 30 REC, 440 YDS, 4 TD

Ford is the key. Stanford averages about 20 points a game, and it needs him to carry the offense against a defense that gives ground on the run.

Louisville Cardinals

Passing: Lincoln Kienholz – 121-180, 1,844 YDS, 10-3 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Isaac Brown – 83 ATT, 568 YDS, 4 TD
Receiving: Lawayne McCoy – 25 REC, 513 YDS, 4 TD

McCoy leads Louisville in receiving yards. He can punish Stanford if it commits extra defenders to stopping Brown.

Prediction

Louisville has won its last two, 34-26 on the road and 44-20 at home, and its two losses before that came by 3 points each. Louisville's run game lines up well against Stanford's run defense, and Stanford's road results have been ugly. Ford keeps it respectable for a half, but Louisville pulls away and covers.

Pick: Louisville Cardinals 42, Stanford Cardinal 17