No. 22 Arizona hosts TCU on Friday night, and the game turns on one collision: a Wildcats passing attack throwing for about 324 yards a game against a Horned Frogs pass defense allowing nearly 175. Something has to give in Tucson. Arizona is 4-0 at home, and TCU arrives at .500 having leaned on its defense all season.

The Matchup

Away: TCU Horned Frogs (4-4)
Home: No. 22 Arizona Wildcats (6-2, 4-0 home)
Venue: Casino Del Sol Stadium, Tucson, AZ
Kickoff: Friday, November 6, 10:15 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Line (DraftKings): ARIZ -7.5, O/U 45.5

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What Decides It

Arizona's air attack against TCU's pass defense is the matchup that should decide it. Fifita has completed 200 of 270 passes for 19 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. That volume and accuracy are why Arizona averages nearly 35 points a game.

TCU's secondary has been the stingier unit in this pairing, though. The Horned Frogs allow nearly 175 passing yards a game, well below what Arizona usually produces. If TCU holds Fifita anywhere near that figure, the Wildcats lose the engine of their offense.

TCU wins games with defense, and it has to here. The Horned Frogs allow about 14 points a game, the best scoring defense on the field. They held their last opponent to 16 and gave up no more than 24 in any of their last 5 games.

The problem is the other side of the ball. TCU has not scored more than 22 points in any of those 5 games, while Arizona has put up at least 26 in each of its last 5. A defense this good still needs help, and TCU's offense has not given it much lately.

The market expects a slower game than either offense's season rate. These teams combine for about 58 points a game, yet the posted total sits well below that. That number leans toward TCU's way of playing games rather than Arizona's.

Jaden Craig gives TCU a real counterpunch. The Horned Frogs throw for nearly 276 yards a game against an Arizona pass defense allowing about 200. If Craig hits on that edge, the total looks low and the spread looks tight.

Players to Watch

Arizona Wildcats

Passing: Noah Fifita – 200-270, 2,481 YDS, 19-4 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Kedrick Reescano – 89 ATT, 321 YDS, 7 TD
Receiving: Isaiah Mizell – 34 REC, 675 YDS, 6 TD

Mizell is the vertical threat TCU has to account for, and Reescano finishes drives with 7 rushing touchdowns.

TCU Horned Frogs

Passing: Jaden Craig – 175-269, 2,207 YDS, 11-6 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Jeremy Payne – 88 ATT, 429 YDS, 2 TD
Receiving: Kari Ashley – 38 REC, 560 YDS, 4 TD

Craig's 6 interceptions are the number to watch. Extra possessions for Fifita are the last thing TCU can afford.

Prediction

TCU's defense keeps this closer than Arizona's season scoring suggests, but TCU's recent offense leaves it little margin on the road against a team unbeaten at home. Fifita's efficiency, 19 touchdowns against 4 interceptions, is the difference late. Arizona bounces back from its 26-34 loss and covers.

Pick: Arizona 28, TCU 20