Temple visits East Carolina on Saturday at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium, and the game runs through the Owls' rushing attack. Temple runs for nearly 60 yards more per game than the Pirates usually allow on the ground. East Carolina's answer has to come through the air.

The Matchup

Records: Temple Owls 2-5 (1-4 home), East Carolina Pirates 3-4 (2-1 home)
Venue: Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium, Greenville, NC
Kickoff: Saturday, Oct. 31, 3:00 p.m. ET
Line (DraftKings): ECU -4.5, O/U 50.5

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What Decides It

Temple can run on East Carolina, and it should keep doing it. The Owls are a ground-first offense, running for more yards per game than they throw for. That rushing output sits well above the roughly 142 yards a game the Pirates give up.

Keveun Mason leads that rushing attack with 513 yards. If Temple stays on schedule and keeps the ball on the ground, it shortens the game and keeps East Carolina's offense on the sideline. That is the clearest path to an upset.

East Carolina's passing game should find room against Temple's secondary. The Owls allow nearly 239 passing yards a game. The Pirates throw for about 195, so Temple's pass defense gives up more than East Carolina usually produces through the air.

Emory Williams has been efficient enough to cash in, with 7 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Ray Ray Joseph Jr. is his volume target with 31 catches. If Williams can hit early throws, Temple has to choose between loading up against TJ Engleman Jr. and protecting its back end.

Home field matters for East Carolina. The Pirates' last two losses both came on the road in overtime, 41-34 and 30-17. Their two most recent home games in that stretch were comfortable wins, 28-12 and 42-9. Temple, meanwhile, has dropped its last two, both at home.

Players to Watch

Temple Owls

Passing: Ajani Sheppard – 74-120, 1,127 YDS, 8 TD
Rushing: Keveun Mason – 94 ATT, 513 YDS, 3 TD
Receiving: Colin Chase – 18 REC, 308 YDS, 2 TD

Chase is the big-play option, averaging more yards per catch than Joseph on far fewer receptions. Sheppard has 8 touchdown passes, and Temple will need a couple of those shots to land to keep pace.

East Carolina Pirates

Passing: Emory Williams – 73-117, 716 YDS, 7-2 (TD-INT)
Rushing: TJ Engleman Jr. – 89 ATT, 582 YDS, 4 TD
Receiving: Ray Ray Joseph Jr. – 31 REC, 285 YDS, 3 TD

Engleman has out-gained Mason on fewer carries. Against a Temple run defense allowing about 166 yards a game, he gives East Carolina a ground game of its own to lean on.

Weather

Expect hazy sunshine and 67 degrees with no rain in the forecast. Gusts up to 16 mph are the variable. Wind like that can push downfield throws and kicks off line, which tilts slightly toward the team that wants to run. That favors Temple's approach more than East Carolina's.

Prediction

Temple's rushing attack will keep this close, and the wind helps it. But East Carolina throws into a Temple pass defense that allows more than the Pirates usually produce, plays at home where it is 2-1, and has a run game that can test Temple's run defense. The Pirates win it late without quite covering.

Pick: East Carolina 28, Temple 24