No. 7 Texas visits No. 18 Missouri on Saturday, November 7, at 12:00 p.m. ET at Memorial Stadium. The game turns on whether the Longhorns' defense can slow an offense that gains more than Texas usually allows, both on the ground and through the air. That makes this a test of the Texas defense more than anything else.
The Matchup
Records: Texas Longhorns 6-2 (5-1 home); Missouri Tigers 6-2 (4-0 home)
Rankings: No. 7 Texas, No. 18 Missouri
Venue: Memorial Stadium, Columbia, MO
Kickoff: Saturday, November 7, 12:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Line: Texas -2.5, O/U 42.5
Missouri Tigers tickets
We may earn a commission from ticket purchases made through this link.
What Decides It
Missouri's run game is the matchup that should decide it. The Tigers run for nearly 168 yards a game. Texas allows about 102 on the ground, so something has to give.
Jamal Roberts is the centerpiece of that attack. If Texas holds Missouri close to what it normally allows, the Tigers have to win through the air. If it can't, Missouri controls the game on its own terms.
Austin Simmons gives Missouri a second way to beat the Texas defense. Missouri throws for about 257 yards a game, and the Texas pass defense allows about 171. The Tigers are well ahead of that number, so this is not a one-dimensional offense Texas can sell out to stop.
Simmons has also protected the ball, with 16 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Arch Manning has thrown 7 interceptions, so the turnover edge at quarterback goes to Missouri.
The betting total says the defenses win the day. These teams average about 62 points a game combined, and the total sits nearly 20 points below that. The market is betting on two defenses that each allow fewer than 19 points a game: Texas about 17, Missouri about 18.
Recent form backs the defensive read. Texas held its last opponent to 3 points in a 31-3 home win. Missouri, for all its offense, was held to a field goal in its 3-31 road loss on October 17.
Texas is not without questions of its own. The Longhorns dropped back-to-back 24-27 home games in October before winning their last two, including a 34-27 win over their most recent opponent but one.
Players to Watch
Missouri Tigers
Passing: Austin Simmons – 152-240, 1,952 YDS, 16-2 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Jamal Roberts – 190 ATT, 1,005 YDS, 9 TD
Receiving: Cayden Lee – 53 REC, 756 YDS, 5 TD
Texas Longhorns
Passing: Arch Manning – 140-216, 1,727 YDS, 15-7 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Raleek Brown – 92 ATT, 452 YDS, 5 TD
Receiving: Ryan Wingo – 36 REC, 470 YDS, 4 TD
Prediction
Missouri 24, Texas 20. The Tigers are 4-0 at home, and their offense outgains what Texas allows both on the ground and through the air. Simmons' 2 interceptions against Manning's 7 tip a close game toward the home side, and a final of 44 points edges just past the 42.5 total.