The UAB Blazers visit the South Florida Bulls at Raymond James Stadium on Saturday, October 31, at noon ET. The game turns on the ground: UAB gives up nearly 191 rushing yards a game, and South Florida has a back with 7 touchdowns ready to test that.

The Matchup

Records: UAB Blazers 4-3 (4-0 home), South Florida Bulls 5-2 (3-1 home)
Venue: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Kickoff: Saturday, October 31, 12:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPNU
Line (DraftKings): USF -7.5, O/U 41.5

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What Decides It

South Florida should be able to run the ball whenever it wants. The Bulls average about 142 rushing yards a game. UAB's defense allows nearly 191, so this is a unit that gives up far more on the ground than South Florida usually produces.

D.J. Crowther is the obvious beneficiary. He has 518 yards on 105 carries, and his touchdown count is more than any passer or receiver in this game.

South Florida has the better scoring defense. The Bulls allow just 15 points a game while scoring nearly 27. UAB, by contrast, gives up almost 25 points a game, slightly more than it scores.

South Florida's most recent game was a 29-2 win at home, and it also won 14-6 on the road in late September. Ryder Burton has thrown 5 interceptions against 6 touchdowns, and that ratio is a problem against a defense this stingy on the scoreboard.

UAB's pass defense gives it a real counter. The Blazers allow only 126 passing yards a game, while South Florida throws for about 184. On paper, that is a tough draw for Michael Van Buren Jr.

Some of that number is likely a product of opponents running so freely that they don't need to throw. Either way, it points South Florida toward Crowther, not away from him.

UAB also has a run game of its own, averaging 168 rushing yards against a Bulls defense that allows about 144. The bigger concern is location: all 4 of UAB's wins have come at home, and its two road games in the last five were losses, including a 38-13 defeat.

Players to Watch

UAB Blazers

Passing: Ryder Burton – 91-167, 1,184 YDS, 6-5 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Rod Robinson II – 101 ATT, 436 YDS
Receiving: CJ Smith – 19 REC, 350 YDS, 1 TD

Smith is UAB's big-play threat, averaging well over 15 yards a catch. Robinson needs to keep the Blazers on schedule so Burton isn't forced into obvious passing downs against this defense.

South Florida Bulls

Passing: Michael Van Buren Jr. – 115-179, 1,266 YDS, 6 TD
Rushing: D.J. Crowther – 105 ATT, 518 YDS, 7 TD
Receiving: Bryson Rodgers – 30 REC, 334 YDS, 2 TD

Crowther is the matchup to watch. Rodgers is Van Buren's volume target and the most likely outlet when UAB crowds the box.

Weather

Expect intermittent clouds and 81°F at kickoff, with gusts up to 15 mph and a 7% chance of rain. The wind is enough to nudge deep throws and kicks, which is one more reason both offenses should lean on the run.

Prediction

South Florida's run game against UAB's leaky run defense is the matchup the Bulls should lean on. The Bulls' scoring defense limits what UAB can do from behind, and the Blazers have yet to win away from home. South Florida wins and covers.