No. 8 UCLA puts an 8-0 record on the line Saturday at Huntington Bank Stadium against Minnesota. The matchup to watch is Wayne Knight and the Bruins' ground game against a Minnesota front that has to find a way to slow it.
The Matchup
Records: UCLA Bruins 8-0; Minnesota Golden Gophers 5-3 (4-1 at home)
Venue: Huntington Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
Kickoff: Saturday, November 7, 12:00 p.m. ET
TV: Fox
Line (DraftKings): UCLA -5.5, O/U 39.5
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What Decides It
UCLA's run game is the mismatch that should decide this one.
Minnesota allows about 126 rushing yards a game, and the Bruins average far more than that on the ground. That is a lot of ground for the Gophers to make up. Knight is the engine, with 680 yards and 12 touchdowns, while Nico Iamaleava has 4 touchdown passes.
Minnesota can't answer in kind. The Gophers run for fewer than 100 yards a game, and UCLA allows about 87 on the ground. One side should control the line of scrimmage, and it isn't the home team.
Minnesota has to find points against a UCLA defense that has given up very little.
UCLA allows about 13 points a game while scoring nearly 34. In its last five games, no opponent scored more than 15, and last week ended in a 27-0 shutout.
Minnesota's offense has been running cold. The Gophers scored 16 in last week's overtime loss and 13 the week before, well below their season average of about 25.
If Minnesota moves the ball, expect it to come through the air. The Gophers throw for about 210 yards a game, a bit more than the roughly 174 UCLA allows, and Drake Lindsey has 10 touchdown passes against 6 interceptions.
The total is a bet on defense, and the recent scores back it.
By season averages these teams combine for nearly 59 points a game, far above the 39.5 posted. The market is reading the recent results instead. Minnesota's last two home games ended 13-10 and 20-14, both under this number, and UCLA's last road game was a 17-15 win.
Players to Watch
UCLA Bruins
Rushing: Wayne Knight – 110 ATT, 680 YDS, 12 TD
Passing: Nico Iamaleava – 72-116, 982 YDS, 4-4 (TD-INT)
Receiving: Semaj Morgan – 36 REC, 415 YDS, 2 TD
Knight is the reason UCLA can win without a big day from the passing game. Morgan is the Bruins' leading receiver if they need to throw.
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Passing: Drake Lindsey – 161-259, 1,592 YDS, 10-6 (TD-INT)
Rushing: TJ Thomas – 63 ATT, 379 YDS, 1 TD
Receiving: Javon Tracy – 46 REC, 460 YDS, 1 TD
Tracy is Lindsey's leading receiver. The Gophers need both at their best to keep pace.
Prediction
UCLA 24, Minnesota 13. UCLA has won 8 straight, and its run game gives it the cleaner path to points against a defense allowing 126.1 rushing yards a game. Minnesota has scored 16 or fewer in three of its last four games, and that won't be enough against a defense allowing 13.4 points a game. The Bruins cover the 5.5, and the game stays under 39.5.