UConn visits Air Force at Falcon Stadium on Saturday, Oct. 31, in a game that turns on one collision. The Falcons run for 337 yards a game and barely throw, and the Huskies have been stingy against the run. Whichever side wins that fight likely wins the game.
The Matchup
Records: UConn Huskies 4-3; Air Force Falcons 5-2 (3-1 at home)
Venue: Falcon Stadium, USAF Academy, CO
Kickoff: Saturday, Oct. 31, 3:00 p.m. ET
TV: MW+
Line (DraftKings): Air Force -1.5, O/U 51.5
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What Decides It
Air Force has to out-run a UConn defense that has been stingy against the run. The Huskies allow just 108 rushing yards a game. That is the number the Falcons must break, because they throw for so little.
UConn's pass defense gives up 285 yards a game. Air Force averages 68 through the air, so that opening probably goes unexploited. The Falcons will line up and test the UConn run defense, snap after snap.
UConn brings the more balanced offense, and both halves of it have an edge. The Huskies run for 203 yards a game against an Air Force defense allowing 133 on the ground. Cyncir Bowers has 7 rushing touchdowns, and he gives UConn a way to keep the chains moving without forcing throws.
The passing game adds a second threat. UConn throws for 245 yards a game, and Air Force allows 164, so the Huskies should find room there too. Kalieb Osborne has thrown 12 touchdowns against 2 interceptions, which means UConn can attack through the air without handing the ball back.
The total looks low against how these teams have scored. UConn averages 36 points a game and Air Force averages 28, a combined 64 against a total of 51.5. The market is pricing in well less scoring than their combined season rate.
There is a case for that. Air Force's recent games include a 14-9 win and a 28-7 win. But the Falcons also won 41-31 and 36-33 in that stretch, and UConn has scored at least 34 points in four of its last five. The over has the stronger evidence.
Form: UConn has won two straight, 35-16 at home and 34-20 on the road. Air Force lost its last game 14-28 on the road, ending a run of four straight wins in the games shown.
Players to Watch
UConn Huskies
Passing: Kalieb Osborne – 112-182, 1,594 YDS, 12-2 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Cyncir Bowers – 80 ATT, 564 YDS, 7 TD
Receiving: Shamar Porter – 14 REC, 265 YDS, 3 TD
Osborne's ball security through the air is the headline. He has given defenses few chances to take the ball away with interceptions.
Air Force Falcons
Passing: Liam Szarka – 19-38, 296 YDS, 1-4 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Evan Medders – 73 ATT, 490 YDS, 6 TD
Receiving: Simon Kibbee – 8 REC, 135 YDS
Medders leads the Falcons in rushing. Szarka has 4 interceptions on limited attempts, so UConn's defense has a chance at takeaways if Air Force is forced to throw.
Prediction
UConn wins, 31-27. Air Force's offense depends on running against a UConn run defense that has been stingy, while the Huskies can attack the Falcons both on the ground and through the air. Air Force's home field keeps it close, but the more complete offense takes it, and the game clears the total.