North Dakota State hosts UTEP at the Fargodome on Saturday, Oct. 31, with the Bison unbeaten at home and the Miners still searching for a second win. The story is in the trenches: UTEP's run defense gives up heavy yardage on average, and North Dakota State runs the ball well.

The Matchup

Teams: UTEP Miners (1-6) at North Dakota State Bison (6-2)
Home/Away: NDSU 4-0 at home; UTEP 1-3 at home, 0-3 away
Venue: Fargodome, Fargo, ND (indoor)
Kickoff: Saturday, October 31, 3:30 p.m. ET
TV: MW+
Line (DraftKings): NDSU -24.5, O/U 42.5

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What Decides It

North Dakota State's ground game should find room all afternoon. UTEP gives up about 193 rushing yards a game, and the Bison average nearly 160 on the ground. UTEP's run defense usually surrenders more than North Dakota State typically gains, which points to a big day on the ground.

That shapes the whole game. If the Bison can lean on the run, they control the clock and keep a struggling UTEP offense on the sideline. Myles Mitchell has carried it 90 times, and there is no reason to expect that workload to shrink here.

North Dakota State wins on both sides of the ball. The Bison allow about 13 points a game while scoring nearly 28. That is a margin of more than 15 points per game, built by an offense that scores and a defense that limits opponents.

Through the air, the Bison allow about 129 passing yards a game. UTEP throws for about 152 a game, so the Miners' passing attack meets a defense that has held opponents below that average. Expect UTEP's offense, which scores about 15 points a game, to struggle to reach even that.

UTEP has nothing going right now. The Miners have dropped at least 5 in a row, and every one of those losses came by double digits. The narrowest was the most recent, an 11-24 home loss, and the worst was a 7-61 defeat on the road.

UTEP has not topped 17 points in any of those games. Against this Bison defense, the Miners need their best offensive showing in weeks just to stay competitive.

One caution on the Bison: they have lost two of their last three, both on the road, falling 16-21 and 7-13. Their lone home game in that span was a 31-17 win, and they are 4-0 at home this season. Saturday's game is in Fargo.

Players to Watch

North Dakota State Bison

Passing: Nathan Hayes – 123-196, 1470 YDS, 12-7 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Myles Mitchell – 90 ATT, 393 YDS, 3 TD
Receiving: Jackson Williams – 32 REC, 503 YDS, 1 TD

Hayes has thrown 12 touchdowns but also 7 interceptions, giving UTEP's defense chances to take the ball away. Williams leads the Bison in receiving.

UTEP Miners

Passing: EJ Colson Jr. – 55-83, 628 YDS, 7-3 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Raymond Moore III – 67 ATT, 414 YDS, 2 TD
Receiving: Kam Thomas – 16 REC, 270 YDS, 1 TD

Moore has more rushing yards than Mitchell on far fewer carries. He faces a Bison run defense allowing about 122 yards a game, far stingier than UTEP's own run defense.

Prediction

North Dakota State wins comfortably. The Bison run game matches up with UTEP's struggling run defense, and their defense should keep the Miners in the low teens or below. UTEP has not shown it can keep games close, and the Bison have not lost at home.

Pick: North Dakota State 34, UTEP 10