No. 14 Wake Forest hosts Virginia on Saturday at Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium, with kickoff at 3:45 p.m. ET on ESPN2. The game turns on two matchups. Gio Lopez's passing attack averages far more yards than Virginia's defense allows through the air, and the Cavaliers' running game averages far more than Wake's defense allows on the ground.

The Matchup

Records: Virginia 4-4 (4-1 home), Wake Forest 6-1 (2-1 home)
Venue: Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium, Winston-Salem, NC
Kickoff: Saturday, Oct. 31, 3:45 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN2
Line: Wake Forest -12.5, O/U 48.5

Wake Forest Demon Deacons tickets
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What Decides It

Wake Forest's passing game is the matchup Virginia has to solve. Wake Forest throws for about 290 yards a game. Virginia allows about 185, so something gives on Saturday.

The bet here is on the Deacons. Lopez has 17 touchdowns against 1 interception, which means Virginia cannot count on him to hand over possessions. Carlos Hernandez has 49 catches for 720 yards, and he gives Lopez a reliable target.

Virginia's running game faces a Wake defense that allows far less than the Cavaliers usually gain. The Cavaliers run for about 162 yards a game. Wake Forest allows about 92 on the ground, so Virginia has to beat Wake's season norm by a wide margin to get its usual production.

If the run stalls, Beau Pribula has to carry the offense. That is not a disaster on paper. Wake gives up about 230 passing yards a game, more than Virginia's 199-yard passing average. Still, asking Pribula to keep pace on the road is a tall order.

The two teams are heading in opposite directions. Wake Forest has won 4 straight, including 41-7 and 38-14 road wins in its last two games. Its only loss came 20-33 at home on Sept. 18.

Virginia has dropped two in a row, scoring 16 and 13 points after averaging over 28 a game on the season. All four of the Cavaliers' wins have come at home, and their last road trip ended in a 13-23 loss.

Players to Watch

Virginia Cavaliers

Passing: Beau Pribula – 119-183, 1,369 YDS, 13-2 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Jekail Middlebrook – 105 ATT, 513 YDS, 4 TD
Receiving: Da'Shawn Martin – 17 REC, 247 YDS, 5 TD

Middlebrook's workload against Wake's run defense is the number to track. Martin has turned limited volume into 5 touchdowns.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Passing: Gio Lopez – 140-207, 1,947 YDS, 17-1 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Ty Clark III – 70 ATT, 328 YDS, 4 TD
Receiving: Carlos Hernandez – 49 REC, 720 YDS, 4 TD

Lopez and Hernandez drive an offense that puts up over 37 points a game. Clark gives the Deacons enough on the ground to keep Virginia from selling out against the pass.

Prediction

Wake Forest wins and covers. The Deacons have the more productive passer and allow far fewer rushing yards than Virginia does, and that run defense is aimed squarely at Virginia's ground game. Virginia has yet to win away from home, and two straight low-scoring losses suggest the offense won't keep pace with Lopez.

Pick: Wake Forest 34, Virginia 17