SMU hosts Virginia Tech on Friday night in Dallas in a meeting of 6-2 teams that both score about 35 points a game. The betting total says this will not be a shootout, and the recent scorelines back the books up.
The Matchup
Records: Virginia Tech 6-2 (3-1 home); SMU 6-2 (5-0 home)
Venue: Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dallas, TX
Kickoff: Friday, November 6, 7:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Line (DraftKings): SMU -6, O/U 56.5
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What Decides It
The low total is easier to defend than the season averages suggest. Together these teams average 70.3 points a game, nearly 14 more than the posted total. On season numbers alone, the market looks far too cautious.
The last five games tell a different story. Virginia Tech scored 20, 34, 20, 33 and 21, never reaching its 35-point season average. Its road games in that stretch ended 20-16, 20-25 and 21-14.
SMU's run of home wins includes a 23-13 result and a 25-16 result, and the Mustangs lost 30-27 on the road last week. A 59-20 home rout does a lot of work in their scoring average.
Virginia Tech has to win through the air against a pass defense that has given up little. The Hokies throw for about 284 yards a game. SMU allows about 182, a gap of more than 100 yards that one side has to win.
Ethan Grunkemeyer gives Virginia Tech a real chance to win it. He has 17 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, and a clean game from him keeps the Hokies within reach on the road.
SMU holds the same edge on the other side, and Virginia Tech's run defense pushes the Mustangs toward it. SMU throws for 318 yards a game against a Virginia Tech defense allowing 218 through the air. Kevin Jennings has 2,414 yards and 21 touchdowns, both ahead of Grunkemeyer's season totals.
The ground game is where Virginia Tech can push back. The Hokies allow about 93 rushing yards a game, well under the roughly 146 SMU gains on the ground. If Virginia Tech slows Kendrick Raphael, the game lands on Jennings, and his 5 interceptions are the one opening the Hokies can attack.
Players to Watch
Virginia Tech Hokies
Passing: Ethan Grunkemeyer – 187-262, 2,140 YDS, 17-2 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Jeffrey Overton Jr. – 113 ATT, 639 YDS, 4 TD
Receiving: Que'Sean Brown – 51 REC, 685 YDS, 3 TD
SMU Mustangs
Passing: Kevin Jennings – 185-251, 2,414 YDS, 21-5 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Kendrick Raphael – 135 ATT, 692 YDS, 9 TD
Receiving: Yamir Knight – 44 REC, 523 YDS, 3 TD
Prediction
SMU 31, Virginia Tech 24. Both passing games should find room, but SMU has the more productive quarterback and is 5-0 at home. Virginia Tech's run defense keeps it close, and the recent scorelines point to a game that stays under 56.5.