No. 25 Wisconsin visits Iowa at Kinnick Stadium on Saturday, Oct. 31, in a game that runs straight through the line of scrimmage. Both teams run for more than 150 yards a game, and both defenses allow fewer than 100. The side that wins that fight on a wet afternoon should win the game.

The Matchup

Away: Wisconsin Badgers (No. 25) – 5-2, 4-0 at home
Home: Iowa Hawkeyes – 5-2, 3-1 at home
Venue: Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, IA
Kickoff: Saturday, Oct. 31, 16:00 UTC
TV: Fox
Line (DraftKings): Iowa -2.5, O/U 36.5

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What Decides It

Iowa holds the edge on both sides of the ground game. The Hawkeyes run for 179 yards a game, while the Badgers average 151. On defense, Iowa allows 83 rushing yards a game to Wisconsin's 96, so the home team comes out ahead in both comparisons.

The personnel tilts the same way. Kamari Moulton has carried 86 times for 541 yards, while Wisconsin's top rusher is also its top passer, Colton Joseph, at 365 yards on 84 carries. If Iowa's front keeps Joseph from turning broken plays into yardage, Wisconsin has less to fall back on.

The total sits well below these teams' scoring rates, and the defenses suggest the market has a point. Iowa scores 28 points a game and Wisconsin 27, a combined 55. The total is about 19 points below that, and the defensive numbers line up with a low number: Iowa allows 14 points a game and Wisconsin 15.

The scoring averages also carry some padding. Iowa beat an opponent 55-0 and Wisconsin won 54-10 within their last five games. Strip out the blowouts and the tighter results look more like this matchup: Iowa scored 10 in a 13-10 loss last week, and Wisconsin managed 7 in its 17-7 road loss on Oct. 17.

Wisconsin has to prove itself on the road. The Badgers are 4-0 at home, which means both of their losses came away from home. Their road results in the last five were a 24-20 win and that 17-7 loss, neither of them comfortable.

Players to Watch

Wisconsin Badgers

Passing: Colton Joseph – 99-173, 1,256 YDS, 11-5 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Colton Joseph – 84 ATT, 365 YDS, 4 TD
Receiving: Tyrell Henry – 28 REC, 343 YDS, 1 TD

Joseph is the whole engine, leading the team in passing and rushing. He has thrown 11 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, and ball security in the rain matters against a defense this stingy.

Iowa Hawkeyes

Passing: Hank Brown – 89-145, 968 YDS, 6-3 (TD-INT)
Rushing: Kamari Moulton – 86 ATT, 541 YDS, 4 TD
Receiving: Tony Diaz – 29 REC, 386 YDS, 1 TD

Moulton is the most important player on the field for Iowa's plan. Brown has thrown 6 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, and he doesn't need to do more than avoid mistakes if Moulton is moving the chains.

Weather

Showers are forecast, with a 54% chance of precipitation, a temperature of 57°F and gusts of 7 mph. The wind is light, but a wet ball favors the team built to run and defend the run. That points toward a shorter, lower-scoring game and further supports the under.

Prediction

Iowa runs for more, allows fewer rushing yards and plays at home, where it is 3-1. Wisconsin's offense depends heavily on Joseph, and that is a hard way to beat this defense in the rain. Iowa covers and the game stays under the total.

Pick: Iowa 20, Wisconsin 13