If the season ended today, the Carolina Panthers would host a wild-card game at 3-4 as the NFC's No. 4 seed. Their opponent would be the 6-2 Chicago Bears, who have the better record but must go on the road as a wild card.

AFC Playoff Picture

1. Buffalo Bills (6-1) – AFC East leader, first-round bye
2. Denver Broncos (6-2) – AFC West leader
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2) – AFC North leader
4. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-2) – AFC South leader
5. Kansas City Chiefs (5-2) – wild card
6. Cincinnati Bengals (5-2) – wild card
7. New England Patriots (5-3) – wild card

The Buffalo Bills hold the AFC's only bye, half a game ahead of the Denver Broncos. Buffalo has won 3 straight, but its next test is a road trip to Minnesota on Monday night against a team with the same record.

Two divisions are half-game races. Denver leads the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC West, and the trend favors the Broncos: they have won 4 straight while the Chiefs have dropped 2 in a row. Kansas City still owns a 5-1 conference record, which could matter in a wild-card tiebreaker.

The AFC North could tighten this week. The Pittsburgh Steelers lead the Cincinnati Bengals by half a game, and Pittsburgh is on a bye. A Bengals win at Atlanta would pull them level on record with the idle Steelers.

The last spot is the most fragile. The New England Patriots sit seventh at 5-3, and the Cleveland Browns have the same record but lose out on tiebreakers. New England is 5-1 in conference play; Cleveland is 3-3.

NFC Playoff Picture

1. San Francisco 49ers (6-1) – NFC West leader, first-round bye
2. Minnesota Vikings (6-1) – NFC North leader
3. New York Giants (4-2-1) – NFC East leader
4. Carolina Panthers (3-4) – NFC South leader
5. Chicago Bears (6-2) – wild card
6. Detroit Lions (5-2) – wild card
7. Green Bay Packers (5-3) – wild card

The NFC's bye is held on tiebreakers alone. The San Francisco 49ers and the Minnesota Vikings are both 6-1, and both lost last time out. Minnesota hosts Buffalo on Monday, which looks like the tougher test of the two this week.

The NFC North is the story of the conference. All four of its teams are in the field today: Minnesota leads, the Bears are half a game back, the Detroit Lions 1 game back and the Green Bay Packers 1.5 games back. Chicago has won 3 straight but is 0-2 in the division, a weakness that could decide the title.

The NFC South is the opposite case. Carolina has lost 2 in a row and still leads, because the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons are both half a game back at 3-5. The New Orleans Saints sit 1 game back. Nobody in that division has a winning record, and the leader gets a home playoff game anyway.

That is the structural quirk the standings expose. A division leader always plays at home, so the Bears and Lions, two of the conference's best records, would both open on the road if the season ended today.

Green Bay holds the last spot at 5-3, with the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams 1 game back. The Packers are 1-2 in their own division and sit 1.5 games behind Minnesota in it.

In the Hunt

AFC

Cleveland Browns (5-3): tied with No. 7, behind on tiebreakers
Las Vegas Raiders (4-4): 1 game back of No. 7
Baltimore Ravens (4-4): 1 game back of No. 7

Cleveland is the closest team outside the field and also sits 1 game back of Pittsburgh in the AFC North. Baltimore has the weakest conference record of the chasers at 2-3, and it gets an immediate chance to make up ground against Jacksonville on Thursday.

NFC

Seattle Seahawks (4-4): 1 game back of No. 7
Los Angeles Rams (4-4): 1 game back of No. 7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5): 2 games back of No. 7
Atlanta Falcons (3-5): 2 games back of No. 7
Arizona Cardinals (3-5): 2 games back of No. 7
Dallas Cowboys (3-5): 2 games back of No. 7
Washington Commanders (2-4-1): 2 games back of No. 7

Two teams in this group have a shorter path through their division. Tampa Bay and Atlanta are 2 games back of the last wild-card spot but only half a game behind Carolina in the NFC South, so the division title is the more realistic route.

Seattle and the Rams are the best-placed wild-card chasers, though Seattle's 1-3 conference record could hurt it in a tiebreaker. Both trail San Francisco by 2.5 games in the NFC West.

Games That Move the Race This Week

9 games this week pit two teams in the race against each other.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens – Thursday, November 5, 8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video
Baltimore sits 1 game back of the last AFC spot. Jacksonville leads the AFC South by 3 games over the Houston Texans and can afford a loss more than the Ravens can.

Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons – Sunday, November 8, 9:30 a.m. ET, NFL Net
With Pittsburgh idle, the Bengals can pull level on record in the AFC North. Atlanta sits half a game behind Carolina in the NFC South.

Los Angeles Rams at Washington Commanders – Sunday, November 8, 1:00 p.m. ET, Fox
The Rams are 1 game back of the NFC's last spot. Washington is 2 games back of both the wild card and the Giants in the NFC East.

Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers – Sunday, November 8, 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS
Denver protects its half-game lead over Kansas City, which hosts the New York Jets. Carolina tries to stop a 2-game skid before it costs the division lead.

Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots – Sunday, November 8, 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox
Both No. 7 seeds meet. The loser falls back toward the pack chasing it in its own conference.

Las Vegas Raiders at San Francisco 49ers – Sunday, November 8, 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox
The 49ers hold the bye only on tiebreakers, so they have no margin to give. The Raiders are 1 game back of the AFC's last spot.

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks – Sunday, November 8, 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox
Seattle is 1 game back of No. 7. Arizona is 2 games back and cannot afford to drop further.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears – Sunday, November 8, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
Chicago chases Minnesota by half a game in the NFC North. Tampa Bay chases Carolina by the same margin in the NFC South.

Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings – Monday, November 9, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN, ABC
This is the week's headline game. Buffalo holds the AFC bye by half a game, and Minnesota trails the 49ers for the NFC bye only on tiebreakers.